Showing posts with label Tversky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tversky. Show all posts

Friday, 6 September 2013

The Disposition Effect



A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.

(Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) 

Stock brokers prefer to sell stocks that rise in price than stocks that fall in price. The preference for 'winners' over 'losers' is driven only by the desire to realise gains over losses. This is called the disposition effect, and it is likely to lead to lower profits.



This is because attitude to risk is different for losses than gains. Behavioural economics has shown that people tend to be risk seeking when it comes to losses, but risk averse when it comes to gains. For example, a stock that depreciates in value will be seen as a loss, making the stock broker more risk seeking and therefore more likely not to sell it (it may go up in value again). But if the stock rises in value then the stock broker is more risk averse and therefore more likely to sell it (to avoid the risk of it falling in value).

The disposition effect increases taxable income (Odean, 1998). If stock brokers realise 'winners' they have to pay tax on the gain. But stock brokers do not have to pay tax on 'losers'. Thus stock brokers could put off paying tax (and thus earn money) by holding 'winners' for longer. And by selling 'losers' taxable income reduces; if stock brokers sell the 'losers' and buy almost identical stocks taxable income actually falls. Thus the disposition effect is irrational for stock brokers (but good for the Inland Revenue!).

The disposition effect is a violation of fungibility because investors view units of money either side of the gain/loss boundary as qualitatively different. This is an example of non-fungibility causing market failure. If investors were aware of this non-fungibility they might be less likely to exhibit it.

Friday, 17 August 2012

Book Review - Thinking, Fast and Slow

 

Daniel Kahneman is a world-renowned psychologist who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002 for his contribution to behavioural economics. Thinking, Fast and Slow is his summary of his lifetime's work into understanding the human brain - it is required reading for anyone who wishes to understand how we make decisions. Kahneman effortlessly keeps you gripped as he conducts his whistle-stop tour of your mind. Reading this will improve how you understand the decision-making process, and might just help you make better decisions in future. Leaders take note!

The title comes from the way psychologists separate brain functions: two systems are in operation, one is incredibly fast but prone to making errors, while the other is more accurate but slower and lazier. Kahneman reveals how the interaction of these systems results in systematic errors in our thinking and quirks in our decision-making.

For example, we have a fantastic tendency to fail to look beyond the obvious. Kahneman uses the phrase 'What you see is all there is' to describe our thinking so often he actually shortens it to WYSIATI. His expertise combined with a wonderful turn of phrase results in highly enjoyable quotes, such as:

"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance."

However, just because Daniel Kahneman has written something doesn't make it true. There are alternative theories (certainly within behavioural economics) worthy of equal attention that don't make the book. Those interested in behavioural economics should not rely on Thinking, Fast and Slow alone. Although, a really nice touch is that the two main papers for which Kahneman received his Nobel Prize are reproduced at the back for those who are really interested.

Given the sheer quantity of material packed into the 400+ pages it may take a while to digest, but don't let that put you off - it's well-worth a read. I thoroughly recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow.



Genre: Psychology
Accessibility: 7/10
Accuracy: 8/10
Readability: 8/10
Usefulness: 10/10
Verdict: Required Reading